Current Winner
Model logistic_regression_gd
Context own_plus_global_macro_ffcore
Own trend_volatility_core
Underlying underlying_trend_breakout
Label upmove_h10_abs10
WF expanding_monthly
Prep winsorize_p02_p98
Phase2 STAGE2
ticker별 후보를 Stage 2 기준으로 나열합니다. winner가 있으면 가장 위에 표시됩니다.
Model logistic_regression_gd
Context own_plus_global_macro_ffcore
Own trend_volatility_core
Underlying underlying_trend_breakout
Label upmove_h10_abs10
WF expanding_monthly
Prep winsorize_p02_p98
Valid Top10 p 0.5831
Valid Top10 n 126
Valid Top10 y1 83
Valid Top10 y1/n 65.87%
Valid AUROC 0.6011
Valid Precision 62.17%
Valid Recall 56.01%
Valid F1 58.93%
Valid Brier 0.2427
Valid BSS 0.0257
Test @ Valid Top10 n 7
Test @ Valid Top10 y1 5
Test @ Valid Top10 y1/n 71.43%
Test AUROC 0.5316
Test Precision 72.92%
Test Recall 21.08%
Test F1 32.71%
Test Brier 0.2572
Test BSS -0.0535
BSS Decay -0.0792
| Winner | Model | Context | Own | Underlying | Label | WF | Prep | Valid Top10 p | Valid Top10 n | Valid Top10 y1 | Valid Top10 y1/n | Valid AUC | Valid P | Valid R | Valid F1 | Valid Brier | Valid BSS | Test @VTop10 n | Test @VTop10 y1 | Test @VTop10 y1/n | Test AUC | Test P | Test R | Test F1 | Test Brier | Test BSS | BSS Decay | LL Decay | Top10 Decay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | logistic_regression_gd | own_plus_global_macro_ffcore | trend_volatility_core | underlying_trend_breakout | upmove_h10_abs10 | expanding_monthly | winsorize_p02_p98 | 0.5831 | 126 | 83 | 65.87% | 0.6011 | 62.17% | 56.01% | 58.93% | 0.2427 | 0.0257 | 7 | 5 | 71.43% | 0.5316 | 72.92% | 21.08% | 32.71% | 0.2572 | -0.0535 | -0.0792 | 0.0295 | 0.0556 |
| - | logistic_regression_gd | own_plus_global_macro_ffcore | trend_volatility_core | underlying_trend_breakout | upmove_h5_abs5 | expanding_monthly | winsorize_p02_p98 | 0.7081 | 126 | 95 | 75.40% | 0.6068 | 69.09% | 88.37% | 77.55% | 0.2260 | 0.0073 | 15 | 9 | 60.00% | 0.4895 | 67.23% | 80.20% | 73.15% | 0.2408 | -0.0932 | -0.1005 | 0.0302 | -0.1540 |
| - | logistic_regression_gd | own_plus_global_macro_ffcore | trend_volatility_core | underlying_trend_breakout | upmove_h10_abs10 | fixed252_monthly | winsorize_p02_p98 | 0.6060 | 126 | 76 | 60.32% | 0.5586 | 57.09% | 47.75% | 52.00% | 0.2518 | -0.0109 | 73 | 42 | 57.53% | 0.4980 | 57.46% | 46.39% | 51.33% | 0.2617 | -0.0718 | -0.0609 | 0.0201 | -0.0278 |
| - | logistic_regression_gd | own_plus_global_macro_ffcore | trend_volatility_core | underlying_trend_breakout | barrier_h10_tp15_sl10 | expanding_monthly | winsorize_p02_p98 | 0.5031 | 126 | 51 | 40.48% | 0.5591 | 39.42% | 13.40% | 20.00% | 0.2213 | -0.0166 | 5 | 2 | 40.00% | 0.4864 | 40.00% | 1.83% | 3.51% | 0.2447 | -0.0404 | -0.0239 | 0.0531 | -0.0048 |
| - | logistic_regression_gd | own_plus_global_macro_ffcore | trend_volatility_core | underlying_trend_breakout | upmove_h5_abs5 | fixed504_monthly | winsorize_p02_p98 | 0.7259 | 126 | 98 | 77.78% | 0.5631 | 67.01% | 80.54% | 73.15% | 0.2327 | -0.0223 | 3 | 3 | 100.00% | 0.5425 | 70.13% | 54.82% | 61.54% | 0.2442 | -0.1086 | -0.0863 | 0.0239 | 0.2222 |
| - | logistic_regression_gd | own_plus_global_macro_ffcore | trend_volatility_core | underlying_trend_breakout | upmove_h10_abs10 | fixed504_monthly | winsorize_p02_p98 | 0.6205 | 126 | 72 | 57.14% | 0.5052 | 53.40% | 55.41% | 54.38% | 0.2551 | -0.0238 | 15 | 13 | 86.67% | 0.5682 | 63.86% | 31.93% | 42.57% | 0.2509 | -0.0277 | -0.0039 | -0.0082 | 0.2952 |
| - | logistic_regression_gd | own_plus_global_macro_ffcore | trend_volatility_core | underlying_trend_breakout | barrier_h10_tp15_sl10 | fixed252_monthly | winsorize_p02_p98 | 0.5270 | 126 | 57 | 45.24% | 0.5439 | 37.96% | 23.08% | 28.70% | 0.2315 | -0.0633 | 73 | 21 | 28.77% | 0.4267 | 28.00% | 25.69% | 26.79% | 0.2653 | -0.1278 | -0.0645 | 0.0661 | -0.1647 |
| - | logistic_regression_gd | own_plus_global_macro_ffcore | trend_volatility_core | underlying_trend_breakout | barrier_h10_tp15_sl10 | fixed504_monthly | winsorize_p02_p98 | 0.5145 | 126 | 48 | 38.10% | 0.5061 | 37.44% | 18.11% | 24.41% | 0.2385 | -0.0953 | 33 | 13 | 39.39% | 0.5369 | 41.67% | 18.35% | 25.48% | 0.2457 | -0.0446 | 0.0507 | 0.0107 | 0.0130 |
| - | logistic_regression_gd | own_plus_global_macro_ffcore | trend_volatility_core | underlying_trend_breakout | upmove_h5_abs5 | fixed252_monthly | winsorize_p02_p98 | 0.6682 | 126 | 86 | 68.25% | 0.5191 | 67.18% | 58.38% | 62.48% | 0.2497 | -0.0969 | 15 | 12 | 80.00% | 0.5534 | 69.86% | 51.78% | 59.48% | 0.2444 | -0.1093 | -0.0124 | -0.0117 | 0.1175 |